The highly anticipated US non-farm payrolls report released on Friday showed stronger-than-expected gains in employment and wages: In May, the US non-farm payrolls added 272,000 jobs, which is 92,000 more than the consensus expectation, with average hourly earnings growing 4.1% year-over-year, not stabilizing at April's 3.9% as expected, and accelerating by 0.4% month-over-month, faster than anticipated. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.0%, the first increase in more than two years since April.
Commentators have said that this is a report unfriendly to monetary easing, as the strong labor market it reflects could lead to persistent upward pressure on inflation and reinforce the Federal Reserve's cautious attitude towards rate cuts, suggesting that the Fed may keep high interest rates unchanged for the next few months. Former Pimco CEO Mohamed El-Erian commented that the report has closed the door on rate cuts in July.
The employment report dealt a blow to the interest rate cut expectations that had been reignited earlier this week. Before the report's release, derivatives contracts were fully priced for a rate cut in November, but after the report, traders estimated the probability of a rate cut in November to be about 80%, and the total expected rate cut for the year was reduced from 47 basis points before the report to about 37 basis points.
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Following the release of the employment report, US Treasury prices plummeted, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield and the more rate-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield both rising more than 10 basis points during the session. The US dollar index, which had approached a two-month low earlier in the day, surged straight up to a high not seen in over a week; US stocks opened lower. Precious metals such as gold and silver, as well as industrial metals like copper, all fell sharply, with New York futures gold and spot gold both falling more than 3% during the session, marking the largest drop in more than two years, with futures silver falling more than 6%, and futures copper falling more than 4%.
However, the decline in US stocks eased during the session. Including Nvidia, which fell more than 2% at the start of trading, seven tech giants all turned positive during the session, with Apple, the only one to close higher, rising more than 1% before the AI-focused Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) next Monday, following the exposure of various AI features in iOS 18. Nvidia's double-digit rise for the week helped US stock indices rebound after last week's decline. GameStop, which disclosed a potential sale of up to 75 million shares, plummeted more than 40% during the session, erasing most of the gains since Thursday's news that the "leader" of US retail investors, Keith Gill, had resumed his YouTube live broadcast after three years, and the decline did not narrow even after Gill started broadcasting.
Compared to metals, international crude oil experienced limited declines among commodities, turning positive multiple times during the session. The Fed's rate cut expectations affected the outlook for oil demand, and data from oilfield services company Baker Hughes showed that the number of active oil and gas rigs in the US fell to a new low in more than two and a half years this week. In addition, on Thursday, the Saudi Energy Minister hinted that the production agreement reached by OPEC+ over the weekend might be adjusted, and the plan to increase production might be revoked, partially offsetting the downward pressure on oil prices. Crude oil continued to accumulate losses for the week, mainly due to the OPEC+ agreement showing that Saudi Arabia and seven other countries will gradually revoke voluntary production cuts starting in October, leading to a significant drop in oil prices on the first trading day of the week following the announcement. Metals like gold also accumulated losses this week. In addition to the employment report causing concerns about the outlook for rate cuts, some commentators said that China's gold reserves stopped rising for the first time in 18 months in May, which was also bearish news for gold on Friday.
All three major US stock indices turned positive during the session but ended the day lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average initially fell more than 130 points, or more than 0.3%, but turned positive about half an hour after the open and maintained its gains, reaching a daily high in the morning session, up nearly 220 points, or nearly 0.6%, before turning negative in the afternoon. The S&P 500 initially fell 0.4%, but erased its losses in less than an hour after the open, and the Nasdaq Composite initially fell nearly 0.5%, but turned positive more than an hour after the open, and both reached their daily highs in the afternoon session.
At the close, all three indices fell, ending the day lower. The S&P 500 closed down 0.11%, at 5,346.99, and the Nasdaq closed down 0.23%, at 17,133.13, both continuing to move away from the closing record highs set on Wednesday. The Dow Jones, which had risen for three consecutive days to its highest closing level since May 24, closed down 87.18 points, or 0.22%, at 38,798.99.
The small-cap index, dominated by value stocks, the Russell 2000, closed down 1.12%, falling for two consecutive days and underperforming the broader market for two days, reaching its lowest closing level since May 2 on Tuesday. The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 index closed down 0.11%, the related ETF Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ) closed down 0.09%, and the Nasdaq Technology Dividend-Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of technology sector components in the Nasdaq 100 index, closed down 0.03%, all falling for two consecutive days after rising for three consecutive days to a record high close, with the latter accumulating a 3.78% gain for the week.This week, major U.S. stock indices rebounded collectively, with the S&P 500 rising by 1.32%, the Nasdaq Composite up by 2.38%, and the Nasdaq 100 gaining 2.5%, marking the sixth weekly gain in the last seven weeks for all; the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which had fallen for two consecutive weeks, rose by 0.29%. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000, which had a slight gain last week, fell back, with a weekly decline of 2.11%.
Among Dow Jones constituents, UnitedHealth, a healthcare giant, led the decline on Friday with a drop of over 2%, followed by Walmart with a nearly 2% drop, and Home Depot and McDonald's both falling over 1%; on the other hand, 3M rose over 2%, and Travelers, Apple, JPMorgan Chase, IBM, and Intel all increased by more than 1%. In the S&P 500 sectors, only four closed higher on Friday, with financials up by nearly 0.4%, the IT sector where Apple is listed up by 0.2%, and healthcare and industrials up by 0.1%. Among the seven declining sectors, real estate and utilities, hit by high interest rates, fell by nearly 0.9% and 1.1% respectively, and materials fell by about 1%, dragged down by a significant drop in metals.
For the week, five sectors accumulated gains, with IT surging by over 3.8%, healthcare rising by nearly 2%, communication services up by over 1.7%, non-essential consumer goods up by 1.5%, and essential consumer goods up by nearly 0.5%; among the six declining sectors, utilities fell by nearly 4%, energy by nearly 3.5%, materials by 2%, industrials by nearly 1%, financials by nearly 0.5%, and real estate by over 0.2%.
Tech giants, including Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Google's parent Alphabet, Amazon, Facebook's parent Meta, and Tesla, all saw their stocks turn positive at some point during the trading session but mostly closed lower. Tesla, which had risen for two consecutive days, initially fell by 1.1%, turned positive by nearly 0.8% in the morning, and then turned negative in the afternoon, falling by 1.3% at one point, and closed down by nearly 0.3%, with a weekly decline of over 0.3%, marking two consecutive weeks of slight decreases.
Among the FAANMG group of tech stocks, Microsoft, which had risen for three consecutive days to a high not seen since May 29, turned positive during the session and once rose by 0.4%, but still closed down by nearly 0.3%; Alphabet, which had risen for five consecutive days to a high not seen since May 21, turned negative multiple times during the session and closed down by nearly 1.4%; Amazon, which had risen for three consecutive days to a high not seen since May 15, initially fell by nearly 0.9% but once turned positive by 0.7% during the session, and closed down by nearly 0.4%; Meta turned positive during the session and once rose by 1% in the afternoon, but turned negative at the end of the day and closed down by nearly 0.2%, after rebounding on Wednesday to a high not seen since April 23 and then falling for two consecutive days; Netflix initially turned negative and closed down by nearly 1.1%, continuing to fall away from the one-week high set by a nearly 3% rebound on Wednesday; while Apple initially turned negative briefly but closed up by over 1.2%, rebounding to a closing high not seen since December 19, 2023, after ending an eight-day winning streak on Thursday.
For the week, most of these six tech stocks accumulated gains, with Meta rising by nearly 5.5%, Amazon up by over 4%, Apple and Microsoft up by over 2%, Alphabet up by over 1%, while Netflix fell by less than 0.1%.
Semiconductor stocks alternated between gains and losses during the session, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the semiconductor industry ETF SOXX initially falling by nearly 0.7%, turning positive several times during the morning and afternoon sessions, and both closing down by about 0.3%, marking two consecutive days of losses after rebounding to a new closing high on Wednesday, with weekly gains of 3.2% and nearly 2.6% respectively. Among semiconductor stocks, Nvidia initially fell by nearly 2.5%, briefly turned positive in the afternoon, and ultimately closed down by less than 0.1%, continuing to fall away from the closing record high set for three consecutive days on Wednesday, with a weekly gain of 10.3%; at the close, Semtech (SMTC), which announced the departure of its CEO, fell by 17.9%, while Intel and TSMC's U.S.-listed shares rose by over 1%, AMD and Micron Technology rose by nearly 0.7%, and Broadcom rose by nearly 0.4%.
Most AI concept stocks fell. The AI and robotics ETF Glb X Robotics & AI ETF (BOTZ) saw declines, with SoundHound.ai (SOUN) falling by nearly 4%, Dell (DELL) by 3%, Palantir (PLTR) by 2%, Super Micro Computer (SMCI), Astera Labs (ALAB) by over 1%, while BigBear.ai (BBAI) rose by 5.9%, Oracle (ORCL) by nearly 2%, and C3.ai (AI) by 0.2%.
Popular Chinese concept stocks generally fell, underperforming the broader market. The NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) opened lower and continued to decline, falling by nearly 2% at midday and closing down by over 1.7%, marking two consecutive days of losses and setting a new closing low since May 1st, with a weekly decline of over 1.6%. Chinese concept ETFs KWEB and CQQQ both closed down by about 2.9%. Among the new force in car manufacturing, XPeng (XPEV) closed down by over 2.5%, NIO (NIO) and Zeekr fell by over 1%, while Li Auto (LI) rose by over 1%. Among other stocks, Daqo New Energy (DQ) and Bilibili (BILI) fell by over 5%, Jinko Energy (JKS) by over 4%, Tencent's pink sheet by over 3%, Alibaba (BABA) by 2%, Baidu (BIDU) by nearly 2%, JD.com (JD) by over 1%, while Pinduoduo (PDD) slightly rose, and NetEase (NTES) closed flat.
Among the more volatile stocks, GameStop (GME), which had risen by 47.5% on Thursday, opened down by 19%, briefly jumped by 3.1% at the start of the session, then turned negative and fell by over 30% in the morning, with the decline widening after Keith Gill's live broadcast began, falling by nearly 44% at one point; Vail Resorts (MTN), a ski resort operator, fell by 10.3% after its third-quarter earnings and revenue fell short of expectations; DocuSign (DOCU), an electronic signature company, fell by 4.7% despite better-than-expected first-quarter results; Planet Labs (PL), which reported a first-quarter loss lower than expected and revenue higher than expected, rose by about 11%; Geron (GERN), a biopharmaceutical company, rose by about 18% after its blood disease treatment drug Rytelo received earlier-than-expected approval from the U.S. regulatory agency FDA.Following the US jobs report, the pan-European stock index, which had risen for two consecutive days, maintained its downward trend. The Stoxx 600 index fell from the closing high it set on Thursday, which was the highest since May 15th. The stock indices of the four major Eurozone economies and the UK, which had risen together for two days in a row, generally fell back on Friday.
Among the Stoxx 600 sectors, the rate-sensitive real estate sector led the decline with a drop of nearly 3%. Among the constituents, Vonovia, a German-listed company, fell by 7.2% after its rating was downgraded by Morgan Stanley. The healthcare sector, however, closed up by nearly 0.5%, with Novo Nordisk, the highest-valued pharmaceutical company in Europe listed in Denmark, rising by 1.1%. Both the company and the Danish stock index continued to hit new historical highs. The technology sector rose by nearly 0.4%, with ASML, the highest-valued technology stock in Europe listed in the Netherlands, closing up by nearly 0.2%. Both the company and the Dutch stock index set new historical highs for three consecutive days.
For the week, the Stoxx 600 index accumulated a gain of about 1%, rebounding after two consecutive weeks of decline. Most national stock indices accumulated gains, with German and French stocks rebounding after three weeks of decline, Italian stocks flat after a strong rise last week, Spanish stocks rising for two consecutive weeks, and UK stocks falling for four consecutive weeks.
Among the sectors, technology, which fell by nearly 3.5% last week, led the rebound this week with a gain of over 6%, with ASML surging by 10.1% for the week. The healthcare sector rose by over 3% this week, with Novo Nordisk accumulating a gain of 6.1%. However, the resources sector, dragged down by commodities such as crude oil, saw the largest decline, with the basic resources sector, which includes oil and gas and mining stocks, falling by 3.1% and 2.9% respectively. The real estate sector, due to the significant drop on Friday, fell by 1.8% for the week.
After the jobs report, US Treasury yields rose by more than 10 basis points, but the ten-year yield still fell for the week. European government bond prices fell across the board, with yields following the upward trend of US Treasuries during the session. By the end of the bond market, the UK's 10-year benchmark government bond yield was around 4.26%, down about 9 basis points during the day; the benchmark 10-year German government bond yield was around 2.62%, up about 7 basis points during the day. For the week, European bond yields are set to fall collectively, with the 10-year UK bond yield falling by about 6 basis points and the German bond yield falling by about 4 basis points, both after two weeks of consecutive rises, with the latter being the second week of decline in the last eight.
The US 10-year benchmark Treasury yield tested 4.29% before the non-farm payroll employment report, hitting a daily low, and quickly broke above 4.40% after the report's release. It rose to above 4.43% at the beginning of the US stock market session, rising by nearly 15 basis points during the day. It moved away from the low of 4.28% on Thursday, which was the lowest since April 1st, and continued to rise after the US stock market opened, although the increase narrowed, remaining above 4.40%. By the end of the bond market, it was around 4.43%, up by more than 14 basis points during the day, rising for two consecutive days after five days of decline, and falling by about 7 basis points for the week after two weeks of consecutive rises.
The 2-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to interest rate prospects, hit a daily low in the early Asian session. After the employment report, it quickly broke above 4.80%, and the increase expanded at midday during the US stock market session, rising to above 4.88% at the end of the day. It moved away from the low of 4.72% on Thursday, which was the lowest since the US CPI announcement on May 16th following the April release. By the end of the bond market, it was around 4.89%, rising by about 17 basis points during the day after being roughly flat on Thursday. It climbed for the first time in the last eight trading days, and thanks to the rise on Friday, the weekly yield was able to rise by about 2 basis points, rebounding after a decline last week.
After the employment report, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies including the euro, rose sharply to a new high in over a week. The index had fluctuated slightly downward during the day on Friday, falling below 104.00 at the start of the European session, approaching the low set on Tuesday since April 9th. After the US non-farm employment report, it quickly rose, breaking above 104.90 in the early US stock market session and approaching 104.95 at midday, hitting a high not seen since May 30th, rising by more than 0.8% during the day.By the end of trading on Friday, the US dollar index was reported above 104.90, rising 0.8% during the day after a decline on Thursday, and accumulating a gain of about 0.2% for the week following last week's retreat; the Bloomberg US Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the US dollar against ten other currencies, rose 0.8% during the day, marking two consecutive days of gains, reaching a high for the same period since May 1, accumulating a gain of nearly 0.9% for the week, and marking two consecutive weeks of increases.
Among non-US currencies, following the US employment report, both the euro and the British pound fell sharply against the US dollar. The euro tested below 1.0800 during the US stock market midday, hitting a low not seen since May 30, falling 0.8% during the day. The British pound once broke below 1.2720 during the early US stock market session, reaching a low not seen since Monday of this week, falling nearly 0.6% during the day. The Japanese yen, which rebounded on Thursday, turned negative during the trading session, with the US dollar against the yen quickly turning positive after the US employment report. It once broke above 157.00 during the US stock market early session, returning to the level seen on Monday, moving away from the low of 154.60 to 154.55 set on Tuesday, which was the lowest since May 16, rising more than 0.9% during the day.
The offshore renminbi (CNH) against the US dollar hit a daily high of 7.2474 before the release of the US employment report, but fell sharply after the report was announced, reaching a daily low of 7.2654 during the US stock market early session, falling 180 points from the daily high, and failing to approach the high level set on Tuesday after breaking through 7.24, which was the highest level since May 21. At 4:59 AM Beijing time on June 8, the offshore renminbi against the US dollar was reported at 7.2631, down 38 points from the New York close on Thursday, accumulating a slight fall of 1 point for the week, failing to reverse the downward trend of the previous week.
Bitcoin (BTC) once broke through $71,900 during the European stock market session, reaching a high not seen since May 20, but fell after the release of the US employment report, accelerating its decline during the US stock market session, and once fell to around $68,500 after breaking through $70,000 at midday, falling more than $3,000 from the daily high, nearly 5%, and slightly above $69,000 at the close of the US stock market, falling nearly 2% in the last 24 hours, and rising more than 2% in the last seven days. Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market value after Bitcoin, once broke below $3,620 during the US stock market midday, with some platforms testing $3,600, reaching a low not seen since May 21, falling about 6% from the intraday high during the European stock market session, and was below $3,680 at the close of the US stock market, falling nearly 3% in the last 24 hours, and falling more than 2% in the last seven days.
London base metal futures all fell back on Friday after rebounding on Thursday, with at least a near 2% drop. Leading the decline, London zinc closed down more than 4.9%, marking the largest drop since October 2022, and reaching a new low since early April, with London tin and nickel both falling for the sixth day in the last seven trading days. London copper closed down 3.8%, just recovering the $10,000 mark on Thursday, and then closing below $9,800, reaching a low not seen since late April. London nickel fell 2.7% to a low not seen since mid-April. London aluminum fell to a low not seen since mid-May. London tin gave back most of the nearly 3% gain on Thursday, approaching the low set on Wednesday since early May.
Due to the decline on Friday, the basic metals collectively accumulated a decline for the week. London nickel fell about 8.5%, and London zinc, which fell more than 6.8%, and London tin, which fell 4.8%, all fell for three consecutive weeks. London copper and aluminum fell nearly 2.8%, respectively, falling for three consecutive weeks and two weeks, and London lead fell more than 3%, falling for two consecutive weeks.
New York copper futures, which had risen for two consecutive days, fell sharply, breaking below $4.4470 at the daily low during the trading session, falling nearly 5% during the day, and ultimately the COMEX July copper futures closed down nearly 4.2%, at $4.4835 per pound, reaching a low not seen since April 24, accumulating a decline of nearly 2.6% for the week, and falling for three consecutive weeks.
After the US employment report, gold accelerated its decline, and at the end of the US stock market session, spot gold broke through $2,290, reaching a low not seen in a month, falling more than 3.7% during the day, marking the largest intraday drop since March 2022. New York gold futures approached $2,304 after the close of the US stock market, falling about 3.6% during the day.
By the close of the gold futures during the US stock market midday session, the COMEX August gold futures, which had risen for two consecutive days to a two-week high since May 22, closed down nearly 2.8%, marking the largest closing drop for the main contract since April 22, 2022, at $2,325 per ounce, reaching a closing low not seen since May 8, accumulating a decline of nearly 0.9% for the week, falling back after rebounding the previous week.New York silver futures hit a daily low of $29.22 after the US stock market closed, falling more than 6.8% during the day. At the midday close of the US stock market, COMEX July silver futures fell by more than 6.1%, closing at $29.44 per ounce, reaching the lowest closing level since May 14th, with a weekly decline of nearly 3.9%, marking three consecutive weeks of decline.
Crude oil slightly turned negative, marking three consecutive weeks of decline, while US natural gas rebounded nearly 13% for the week.
International crude oil futures fluctuated several times during trading on Friday, with US WTI crude oil approaching $75.20 when it hit a daily low at the beginning of the European market session, falling nearly 0.5% during the day, while Brent crude was close to $79.30, falling nearly 0.7%. When the US stock market opened in the morning, US oil broke through $76.20, rising more than 0.9% during the day, and Brent oil was close to $80.40, rising more than 0.6%. However, both turned negative more than once afterwards.
Ultimately, crude oil, which had rebounded for two consecutive days, closed slightly lower, failing to continue to move away from the closing low since early February that was set after five consecutive days of decline on Tuesday. WTI July crude oil futures fell by $0.02, with a decline of more than 0.02%, closing at $75.53 per barrel; Brent August crude oil futures fell by $0.25, with a decline of more than 0.31%, closing at $79.62 per barrel.
For the week, US oil fell by about 1.9%, and Brent oil fell by more than 1.8%, both marking three consecutive weeks of decline, with Brent oil experiencing its fifth decline in the last six weeks. Since the outbreak of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, US oil has fallen for the 20th week out of 35, and Brent oil for the 17th week out of 35. The main reason for this week's crude oil decline was the significant drop on Monday, which exceeded 3%, marking the largest single-day decline since January 8th when Saudi Arabia unexpectedly lowered the official crude oil prices for Asia.
US gasoline and natural gas futures showed mixed trends. After hitting a low not seen in over two months on Monday and rebounding for three consecutive days, NYMEX July gasoline futures fell by more than 0.6%, closing at $2.3826 per gallon, with a weekly decline of about 1.4%, marking three consecutive weeks of decline; NYMEX July natural gas futures rose by 3.44%, closing at $2.9180 per million British thermal units, marking three consecutive days of increase, reaching the highest level since May 23rd, and rebounding by about 12.8% for the week after two consecutive weeks of decline.